MORNING DEW
FRIDAY IS COMING, BANKING HOPES
Composite Index closed lower at 5,417.14 with total -10.035 points or -0.185% gain. Stocks are traded around IDR 7,939 Billion in value. Foreign investors booked IDR 163.2 billion outflow from the market. It seems pressure from Fed interest rate is the main spotlight as Janet Yellen schedule to speak on Friday this week. Tax amnesty progress and infrastructure construction are now coming back as the main focus while investor still warry about global economic trend.
International markets are still gauging The Fed rate hike expectation that will be announced by Janet Yellen on Friday. The expectation that The Fed rate will hike somewhere in second semester still persist in the market. Meanwhile, the European market seems already reflect the concern on price as the big bank stocks already soar up in line with gold price as uncertainty increased. Gold price still stay high at US$1,345.30 followed by oil, up at US$ 48/barrel and stills, as the market waiting for the crude oil data from US to be released. CPO price however technically speaking will drop as it forms a double top pattern. The drop might cause stock price related to CPO will go down as well.
Recommendation: CPO price is going down, might be a good time to take profit from AALI, LSIP and SIMP while we are looking at some banks such as BJBR, BJTM and BNII.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR TODAY
COMPOSITE INDEX
JCI is predicted to move around 5,358– 5,454 today’s.
We saw long tailed black candle pattern yesterday with higher than previous day trades volume. This could be a signal of reversal as there is an evidence of increasing selling activity in the market. But it is still in early stage and it needs further confirmation. This week we think the composite is going to consolidate. The index might want to test support and resistance level. Thus we predict composite might move back and forth inside trading trend line.
BJTM
We saw the price still stayed on our bullish trend line. We also saw MACD bar continue moving to positive zone and stochastic also picking up buy momentum. We think the bullish trend will continue and we recommend to buy on low with entry point below 625.
Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: 720
Cut Off Price: 585
ICBP
We saw the stock movements still in bullish trend after an attempt to reverse failed. We saw strong accumulation last week and the drops is healty. We think that the bullish continuation will continue as MACD and Stochastic also contiunue to support upside movement.
Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: 9,580
Cut Off Price: 8,740
SIMP
The price is bounce back and forth in our bullish trend. We saw MACD bar is higher than previous and stochastic is crossed. As the CPO price continue to rise and there still no confirming signal on reveral, we still keep oir bullish view on this stock. We recommend to collect this stock below 510.
Recommendation: BUY
Target Price: 560
Cut Off Price: 490
* This recommendations are made for short term from one day to one week trade period except for trend trade which up to 30 days.
NEWS FROM THE MARKET
EXCL
We attended PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL)'s conference call where we learnt that XL's 2Q16 performance is well below the market's expectations and slightly (2%) below ours. XL's 1H2016 revenue declined by 3% due to flat service revenue and declining interconnection revenue. Meanwhile, 2Q16 revenue declined by 6.7% qoq and declined by 6.6% yoy to Rp 5.237T. Net profit in 6M16 stood at Rp 225B. However, XL would record a net loss of Rp 400B if not for its one-off tower sale where it gained Rp 625B. We expect short-term downward pressure on EXCL and recommend buy on weakness on EXCL with possible initial entry point at Rp 3100 and maintaining our target price at Rp 4000 pending further review.
AISA
PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Tbk (AISA) is optimistic of achieving 30% yoy growth in its net profit in 2016 after selling its palm oil subsidiary PT Golden Plantation Tbk (GOLL) and paying off its foreign-denominated debt. AISA recorded 30.6% yoy growth in net profit to Rp 256B in 1H16.
BEKS
PT Bank Pembangunan Daerah Banten Tbk (BEKS) is planning to carry out a fifth round of rights issue after completing its fourth round of rights issue recently. This news was negatively viewed by the market and BEKS shares closed down 9.88% to Rp 73.
DISCLAIMER This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).
